Browse Write-ups

Portfolio Update

Aug 2, 2026

Five Names Worth Revisiting

A fresh look at five names from the archive, plus a quick recap of the market backdrop. For each name, I cover what happened to the business while the stock moved, where the mispricing has widened, and whether I'm adding at current prices.

Special Situation

Jul 27, 2026

Quantum Upside for $0.24/Share

SEALSQ trades at $2.43, just 11% above its net cash, so you pay close to nothing for an $18M secure-chip business and get its post-quantum and quantum-computing story on top.

Deep Dive

Jul 19, 2026

Top-Three BESS Below 1x Sales

Fluence cut guidance twice in one year and still missed. The stock now trades under 1x FY2026 revenue with a record $5.6B backlog, two hyperscaler MSAs, and a spot in NVIDIA's AI factory reference design.

Deep Dive

Jul 13, 2026

Battery Test Worth Billions

Enovix makes the "highest energy density smartphone battery ever independently tested" and already ships cells for smart eyewear and drones. But smartphone qualification is two years behind, continued burn and dilution are inevitable, and insiders have only sold.

Special Situation

Jul 7, 2026

Atomic Armor for AI Chips and Batteries

A US manufacturer selling into AI memory/logic chips, photonics, and defense batteries is going public at a $1.2B valuation. It's backed by a $100M DOE grant, Samsung SDI building its factory, and a 2028 law banning the US military from buying Chinese battery cells.

Commodities

Jul 2, 2026

Overlooked Tungsten Play

China choked off tungsten, and the miners already ran 10x. The hardest input to secure is high-purity powder, and chipmakers are now switching to molybdenum. One overlooked American name is positioned for both.

Deep Dive

Jun 28, 2026

Celsius's Acquisition Hangover

A record $783M quarter, a first-ever buyback, and open-market buys from the CEO, COO, and a director, all built on the Alani Nu and Rockstar acquisitions. But flagship CELSIUS slowed to 6% and gross margin slipped to 48.3%

Commodities

Jun 23, 2026

$725M Rare Earth Bet

The only U.S. company producing two commercial-purity heavy rare earths from ore, the kind almost no one outside China can make. Both are critical to defense and the AI buildout, and the U.S. government just committed up to $725M to back it.

Special Situation

Jun 18, 2026

Phase 3 Drug Priced for Zero

Reviva trades below its cash and just dropped to the OTC market, but it owns a schizophrenia drug that topped Caplyta's Phase 3 numbers, the kind big pharma buys for billions