Fajasy | StableBread's Newsletter

Fajasy

Quantum Down 41%, Is It Cheap?

Quantum, a $798.1M tape library maker, fired its CFO without giving a reason but still expects to meet or exceed its September-quarter guidance. Is the stock’s drop a pullback worth buying, or a warning about the numbers?

by Fajasy

Oct 28, 2026

Energy

Four Trade Actions on Ethiopian Cells

TOYO trades at 2.0x TTM net income of $80.5M, down 77.5% from its June peak. A Commerce ruling that spares TOYO’s cells from the China duties and an end to U.S. customs detentions could rerate the stock.

by Fajasy

Oct 27, 2026

BRUN

Boost Run Below SPAC Prices

Boost Run is down 77% from its June peak and below its SPAC price, even after a $525.6M Cohere contract took its total contract value past $2.6B. Did the thesis break, or just the stock?

by Fajasy

Oct 19, 2026

Cybersecurity

Spotting Encryption Malware Hides

AI labs are paying to close the gap on malware binaries their best models still can’t read. A ransomware nanocap is now training its own model to read them, after data labeling companies approached its team.

by Fajasy

Oct 11, 2026

Energy

Base Power Priced Near Zero

BWX Technologies builds the reactors for Navy submarines and aircraft carriers, and also develops microreactors to power military bases and potentially data centers. It’s down almost 40% and back near its 2024 multiple on its existing business alone.

by Fajasy

Oct 7, 2026

NICU

$454M for Three Canadian Mines

With one copper mine already covering its own costs, the CEO says the next, which he restarted once before, could produce 2-3x as much. Plus, a much richer discovery isn’t in the October restart study yet.

by Fajasy

Oct 2, 2026

Cybersecurity

$6.8M Bet on a Takeout

A cybersecurity nanocap valued below $10M holds two new U.S. patents, a deployment agreement with a top-10 global financial institution, and newly approved access to a frontier AI model.

by Fajasy

Sep 27, 2026

Energy

Fluence Loses Its Charge

Fluence Energy is a top-three global battery storage integrator with a record $6.4B backlog, trading at 0.48x the ~$2.9B booked for FY2027. Its fourth guidance cut in 19 months took FY2026 revenue to ~$2.4B and adjusted EBITDA to a ~$200M loss.

by Fajasy

Sep 21, 2026

ELMT

$450M and a Penny Warrant

The DoW committed $450M to Elmet in redeemable preferred stock plus warrants that give it 19.9% of Elmet's shares once exercised, with $200M funded at closing. Elmet also landed a $2B stockpile contract, and its diluted market cap is now $845M.

by Fajasy

Sep 17, 2026

Robotics

Robot Safety at Robot Prices

Humanoids can’t work alongside humans without a safety layer, and FORT Robotics has been building that layer since 2018. But its SPAC merger values $11.6M of 2025 revenue at 48x EV/sales.

by Fajasy

Sep 16, 2026

Earnings Update

Two Channels Worth $1B on Paper

Ambarella is a $2.82B edge AI chipmaker trading at 5.8x the FY2027 revenue guide, down from 8.4x in May. Two new distribution channels are sized at ~$500M each over seven years and X7 is its first standalone AI accelerator.

by Fajasy

Sep 9, 2026

Robotics

Digit Out of the Cage

Agility will be the only listed U.S. humanoid pure-play, with a factory rated for 10,000 robots a year and paid deployments at Amazon, GXO, Schaeffler, Toyota, and Mercado Libre. However, at $13.40/share, you're paying $4.51B for just $1.78M of FY2025 revenue.

by Fajasy

Sep 6, 2026

Energy

$13.8M Data Center Option

Fuel Tech trades at 1.6x sales with no debt and $29.6M of cash, ~70% of its market value. Strip the cash out and the operating business is worth ~$13.8M, with the data center pipeline as a free option.

by Fajasy

Aug 27, 2026

Consumer

Deckers Gets Marked Down

A two-brand, share-gaining footwear business at ~12x earnings, ~40% ROE, and ~$1.1B of FCF, priced like it's done growing. Whether it's cheap or a value trap comes down to whether HOKA keeps its pricing power.

by Fajasy

Aug 24, 2026

RVPH

Teva's Fingerprints on Reviva

Reviva pushed its Phase 3 back a year, and the stock is down ~27% since my June write-up. Two developments matter more: (1) a patent filing that stretches exclusivity to 2046 and (2) evidence Teva has studied brilaroxazine since 2023.

by Fajasy

Aug 20, 2026

BRUN

Five More Earnings Updates!

Five quarterly updates on names from the write-up archive. I compare against guidance and discuss what actually matters underneath the headline numbers.

by Fajasy

Aug 16, 2026

AWMLF

Pentagon's Missing Metal

A US$28M company owns the largest known undeveloped indium resource in the US. The US imports 100% of its indium, China controls 70% of supply, and the Pentagon has started soliciting purchases for the stockpile.

by Fajasy

Aug 13, 2026

CELH

Six Earnings Updates!

A very busy earnings week across the names from past write-ups. The market mostly traded the headline while the filings told a more specific story.

by Fajasy

Aug 10, 2026

UUUU

Five Names Worth Revisiting

A fresh look at five names from the archive, plus a quick recap of the market backdrop. For each name, I cover what happened to the business while the stock moved, where the mispricing has widened, and whether I'm adding at current prices.

by Fajasy

Aug 2, 2026

LAES

Quantum Upside for $0.24/Share

SEALSQ trades at $2.43, just 11% above its net cash, so you pay close to nothing for an $18M secure-chip business and get its post-quantum and quantum-computing story on top.

by Fajasy

Jul 27, 2026

Energy

Top-Three BESS Below 1x Sales

Fluence cut guidance twice in one year and still missed. The stock now trades under 1x FY2026 revenue with a record $5.6B backlog, two hyperscaler MSAs, and a spot in NVIDIA's AI factory reference design.

by Fajasy

Jul 19, 2026

ENVX

Battery Test Worth Billions

Enovix makes the "highest energy density smartphone battery ever independently tested" and already ships cells for smart eyewear and drones. But smartphone qualification is two years behind, continued burn and dilution are inevitable, and insiders have only sold.

by Fajasy

Jul 13, 2026

Semis

Atomic Armor for AI Chips and Batteries

A US manufacturer selling into AI memory/logic chips, photonics, and defense batteries is going public at a $1.2B valuation. It's backed by a $100M DOE grant, Samsung SDI building its factory, and a 2028 law banning the US military from buying Chinese battery cells.

by Fajasy

Jul 7, 2026

ELMT

Overlooked Tungsten Play

China choked off tungsten, and the miners already ran 10x. The hardest input to secure is high-purity powder, and chipmakers are now switching to molybdenum. One overlooked American name is positioned for both.

by Fajasy

Jul 2, 2026

CELH

Celsius's Acquisition Hangover

A record $783M quarter, a first-ever buyback, and open-market buys from the CEO, COO, and a director, all built on the Alani Nu and Rockstar acquisitions. But flagship CELSIUS slowed to 6% and gross margin slipped to 48.3%

by Fajasy

Jun 28, 2026