Portfolio Update

Five Names Worth Revisiting

A fresh look at five names from the archive, plus a quick recap of the market backdrop. For each name, I cover what happened to the business while the stock moved, where the mispricing has widened, and whether I'm adding at current prices.

by Fajasy
Aug 2, 2026
Special Situation

Quantum Upside for $0.24/Share

SEALSQ trades at $2.43, just 11% above its net cash, so you pay close to nothing for an $18M secure-chip business and get its post-quantum and quantum-computing story on top.

by Fajasy
Jul 27, 2026
Deep Dive

Top-Three BESS Below 1x Sales

Fluence cut guidance twice in one year and still missed. The stock now trades under 1x FY2026 revenue with a record $5.6B backlog, two hyperscaler MSAs, and a spot in NVIDIA's AI factory reference design.

by Fajasy
Jul 19, 2026
Deep Dive

Battery Test Worth Billions

Enovix makes the "highest energy density smartphone battery ever independently tested" and already ships cells for smart eyewear and drones. But smartphone qualification is two years behind, continued burn and dilution are inevitable, and insiders have only sold.

by Fajasy
Jul 13, 2026
Special Situation

Atomic Armor for AI Chips and Batteries

A US manufacturer selling into AI memory/logic chips, photonics, and defense batteries is going public at a $1.2B valuation. It's backed by a $100M DOE grant, Samsung SDI building its factory, and a 2028 law banning the US military from buying Chinese battery cells.

by Fajasy
Jul 7, 2026
Commodities

Overlooked Tungsten Play

China choked off tungsten, and the miners already ran 10x. The hardest input to secure is high-purity powder, and chipmakers are now switching to molybdenum. One overlooked American name is positioned for both.

by Fajasy
Jul 2, 2026
Deep Dive

Celsius's Acquisition Hangover

A record $783M quarter, a first-ever buyback, and open-market buys from the CEO, COO, and a director, all built on the Alani Nu and Rockstar acquisitions. But flagship CELSIUS slowed to 6% and gross margin slipped to 48.3%

by Fajasy
Jun 28, 2026
Commodities

$725M Rare Earth Bet

The only U.S. company producing two commercial-purity heavy rare earths from ore, the kind almost no one outside China can make. Both are critical to defense and the AI buildout, and the U.S. government just committed up to $725M to back it.

by Fajasy
Jun 23, 2026
Special Situation

Phase 3 Drug Priced for Zero

Reviva trades below its cash and just dropped to the OTC market, but it owns a schizophrenia drug that topped Caplyta's Phase 3 numbers, the kind big pharma buys for billions

by Fajasy
Jun 18, 2026
Deep Dive

NVIDIA's $4.9B Australian Bet

An Australian neocloud signed more than $2.2B of five-year, take-or-pay GPU contracts against $1.6M of 2025 revenue. A short seller calls them phantom. Oaktree and NVIDIA are funding the buildout anyway

by Fajasy
Jun 15, 2026
Deep Dive

Eggs Are Cheap Again

5x earnings, a 14.6% distribution yield, and net cash worth a third of the market cap. But each one leans on a bird-flu spike that's reversing

by Fajasy
Jun 10, 2026
Special Situation

$50B Roll-Up Led by 200x Operator

QXO loses money, dilutes every quarter, and just levered up for a $17B acquisition. It might still be the best operator bet on the market

by Fajasy
Jun 7, 2026
Portfolio Update

Boost Run's Q1 2026

Q1 revenue came in a third short of plan, but the contracted backlog hit ~$1.45B and the ARR target rose to $400M. From here, it's all deployment

by Fajasy
Jun 3, 2026
Deep Dive

Toast on Sale?

The restaurant operating system is more profitable than ever and pushing into enterprise, retail, and AI agents, but a consumer pullback, rising memory-chip costs, and tougher competition have halved its multiple

by Fajasy
Jun 2, 2026
Deep Dive

Pure-Play Below NVIDIA

Ambarella owns the edge AI layer NVIDIA doesn't touch and just turned profitable. The new $800M Hanwha LTA and 15+ robotics design wins (including humanoids) are still ahead

by Fajasy
May 29, 2026
Special Situation

Solar Microcap AI Power Pivot

PowerBank's history is ugly and it operates just 35 MW of solar today, but its sites, permitting relationships, and a recent LOI open a real path into the AI buildout's bottleneck: power delivery

by Fajasy
May 24, 2026
Deep Dive

Doximity's Growth Reset

Record FY26 revenue, free cash flow, and engagement, but a FY27 guide that cut growth from 13% to 4% and a ~64% stock drop. AI Search monetization is management's answer

by Fajasy
May 20, 2026
Portfolio Update

BRUN, DGXX, & AI Infra Comps Analysis

Boost Run's share structure post-merger, DigiPowerX's Q1 earnings and Cerebras IPO read-through, plus a comps valuation across 10 AI infrastructure operators

by Fajasy
May 17, 2026
Deep Dive

Root's Turnaround Story

Record $36M net income and 47% ROE drive a first-ever buyback, but underlying combined ratios lag peers as premium book growth slowed to 2% y/y from 23%

by Fajasy
May 14, 2026
Special Situation

$632M EV With ~4% Downside

Trust floor at ~$10.25 caps the downside at ~4%. Upside depends on conversion of a $300M qualified pipeline across GPU cloud, modular data centers, and HVDC power

by Fajasy
May 8, 2026
Deep Dive

Tape Stocks' AI Upside

Two pure-play tape stocks just caught the AI tailwind. Tape sales doubled q/q at one. The dilution math is the catch.

by Fajasy
May 6, 2026
Deep Dive

$93M Cash, No Debt, & 400MW of Power

First AI customer signed April 20. Cash backs the downside. 99% of the 400MW capacity is still uncontracted. Base case puts per-share at +346% by FY 2027.

by Fajasy
Apr 29, 2026
Thematic

The AI Archive Layer

Magnetic tape is overlooked in the AI infra value chain, and within storage itself, even though tape is where archival data sits.

by Fajasy
Apr 22, 2026
Special Situation

Boost Run Setup

SPAC merger priced below every public GPU cloud peer, with a team that's built and sold this infrastructure before.

by Fajasy
Apr 12, 2026
Commodities

Silver's Structural Deficit Is Getting Worse

Solar demand, supply inelasticity, and China's export restrictions are tightening a market that's been in deficit for five years.

by Fajasy
Jun 11, 2025
© 2026 StableBread.
beehiivPowered by beehiiv